Australia A-League 2026/27 xG Round-Up, Matchday 1

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3 of 6 matches with xG: 7 goals from 9.7 xG (0.72 goals per xG).

Most xG without a win: Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers (xG 0.48–1.44). Draw against the xG: Western Sydney Wanderers had 61% to win on xG.
Win most in line with xG: Macarthur 2–1 Perth Glory (xG 1.44–1.29). The winner had 41% on xG.
Most xG: Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets (xG 2.74–2.29). 5.03 xG in all.
Most one-sided: Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers (xG 0.48–1.44). An xG gap of 0.96.
Most goals above xG: Macarthur, +0.56 goals above xG.
Most goals below xG: Western Sydney Wanderers, -1.44 goals below xG.

Match	xG	Chances (home · draw · away)	Result on xG
Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers	0.48–1.44	12% · 27% · 61%	Draw against the xG: Western Sydney Wanderers had 61%
Macarthur 2–1 Perth Glory	1.44–1.29	41% · 26% · 34%	Win in line with xG for Macarthur
Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets	2.74–2.29	49% · 18% · 33%	Draw in line with xG

Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.

every league