How we measure
Every number on the Xgoals livescore can be checked. This page says where the data comes from, what each word means, and how often our goal alerts are right, always next to the ordinary chance of a goal at the same minute.
Our alert record
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How an alert is judged
An alert names one team. It is a success when that team scores the next goal of the match, at any time until full time. If the other team scores first, it is a miss; if nobody scores, it is a miss.
Early in a match a next goal is very likely anyway, so a rate on its own means little. We always show it next to the ordinary chance: how often a team scores next from the same minutes, with no alert at all.
The ordinary chance of a goal
From the matches in our xG history: how often another goal comes before full time from each minute, and how often a given team scores the next goal. This is the line every claim has to beat.
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What our xG history shows
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What the words mean
- xG (expected goals)
- The chance that a shot becomes a goal, from 0 to 1. A team's xG adds up all its chances so far. 1.4 xG means its chances would usually bring about one or two goals.
- xG Gap
- A team's xG minus its goals: how far its score is behind (+) or ahead (−) of its chances. It describes what has happened; it does not mean a goal must come.
- xG total · 1st half · 2nd half
- The xG for the whole match so far, and for each half. Shown, never used to fire an alert.
- Current xG
- The xG a team has built since its last restart: it starts again at 0 when that team scores, at half time (both teams), at the start of extra time, and when it takes a penalty, scored or missed. A penalty kick is typically worth about 0.76 to 0.79 xG, depending on the analytical model used (most models give it a fixed value from the historical scoring rate of penalties), so it would look like pressure that is not there; after a missed penalty the count starts again. A penalty's xG sometimes arrives a few minutes late, so the first big jump in the 8 minutes after a penalty is treated as the penalty itself. Alerts come only from current xG.
- Honoured its xG
- At full time, its goals were within 0.5 of its xG. Above: it scored more than 0.5 over its xG. Below: more than 0.5 under it.
- xG Gap of 1
- From the minute its xG is at least 1.0 above its goals. Scored after when it scores after that minute.
- Against the run of play
- A goal scored by the side that had at least 0.5 less xG than the other at that moment.
- Strongest 10'
- The biggest rise of a team's xG within any 10 minutes of the match, and whether it scored in the 10 minutes after.
Where the data comes from
- Xgoals Live reads every live match every few seconds and keeps each team's xG minute by minute, so a match's whole xG story is stored, not only the final figure.
- Live xG usually starts around minute 11; before that it is unknown, never counted as 0.
- The final xG is sometimes revised after the match (for example 0.76 becomes 0.68). Match reports use the latest figure; the in-match chart keeps the readings as they were.
- Older seasons (from 2023) have the full-time xG only; they feed each team's long xG record.
What we found, and what we do not claim
Found
- A team's xG form predicts its next match better than its goals form.
- Total xG alone mostly tells how far a match has gone, not that a goal is near. Recent pressure tells more.
- Finishing streaks fade: a team far above its xG over its last games is usually back to normal in the next one.
Not claimed
- Nothing we tested beat the bookmaker's price. The prices already contain these patterns, live and before kick-off.
- An alert is a pointer to watch a match, not a prediction you should bet on.
Privacy
Xgoals works without an account and keeps nothing about you unless you choose a feature that needs it. What is kept, why and for how long, cookies and your rights: Privacy at Xgoals.
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