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8 of 8 matches with xG: 25 goals from 21.5 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP 0–1 Capivariano | 0.79–1.32 | 22% · 28% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Capivariano |
| RB Bragantino 3–0 Novorizontino | 1.87–0.50 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Mirassol 1–2 Portuguesa | 1.29–0.59 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Won against the xG: Portuguesa |
| Palmeiras 1–1 Guarani Campinas | 3.11–1.93 | 62% · 16% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 62% |
| Ponte Preta 1–2 Sao Paulo | 0.55–1.30 | 16% · 29% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Primavera SP 3–3 Noroeste | 2.10–1.30 | 56% · 21% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Primavera SP had 56% |
| Santos 6–0 Velo Clube | 2.66–0.43 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| São Bernardo 0–1 Corinthians | 0.26–1.48 | 6% · 25% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.