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5 of 8 matches with xG: 15 goals from 14.3 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Luneng 4–0 Sichuan Jiuniu | 2.03–1.14 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Shandong Luneng |
| Meizhou Kejia 1–3 Changchun Yatai | 2.08–0.60 | 72% · 18% · 9% | Won against the xG: Changchun Yatai |
| Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Tianjin Teda | 1.90–0.50 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Dalian Zhixing had 71% |
| Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Chengdu Better City | 0.41–3.12 | 3% · 8% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Chengdu Better City |
| Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Yunnan Yukun | 1.24–1.26 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, Wuhan Three Towns won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.