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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 36.6 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 2–2 Preston | 1.89–1.46 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Burnley 3–1 Millwall | 2.26–1.51 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Coventry 2–0 Middlesbrough | 1.98–1.47 | 50% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Derby 0–0 Stoke City | 1.49–0.25 | 69% · 25% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Derby had 69% |
| Norwich 4–2 Cardiff | 2.97–1.77 | 62% · 16% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Plymouth 1–2 Leeds | 0.49–3.08 | 3% · 9% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Portsmouth 1–1 Hull City | 0.78–2.28 | 11% · 18% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 71% |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 Blackburn | 2.51–0.60 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 79% |
| Sunderland 0–1 QPR | 0.57–0.36 | 33% · 48% · 19% | Close call, QPR won |
| Swansea 3–3 Oxford United | 1.17–1.92 | 23% · 22% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Oxford United had 55% |
| Watford 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.56–1.52 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 5–3 Luton | 2.18–0.54 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.