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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 39.2 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 0–1 Leicester | 1.40–2.52 | 20% · 18% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Watford 0–4 Coventry | 1.70–1.39 | 45% · 24% · 32% | Close call, Coventry won |
| Hull City 2–1 Norwich | 1.82–0.97 | 57% · 23% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Derby 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 2.11–1.85 | 45% · 21% · 35% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Ipswich 3–0 QPR | 2.53–0.84 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 West Brom | 1.28–1.87 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Millwall 2–0 Oxford United | 2.14–1.09 | 61% · 20% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Wrexham 2–2 Middlesbrough | 1.70–2.12 | 31% · 21% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City | 1.98–1.03 | 59% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Swansea 3–1 Charlton | 1.16–0.96 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Portsmouth 1–1 Birmingham | 0.74–1.67 | 16% · 24% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 60% |
| Preston 1–3 Southampton | 1.91–2.41 | 31% · 19% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.