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Most points above xPts: Stoke City (+11.5 pts), Blackburn (+6.2 pts), West Brom (+5.7 pts).
Most points below xPts: Preston (−8.8 pts), Burnley (−7.1 pts), Millwall (−5.6 pts).
| # | Team | Real | MP | xG | xGA | xPts | Pts | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 15 | 31.2 | 14.7 | 30.3 | 29 | −1.3 |
| 2 | Wolves | 5 | 15 | 26.4 | 14.4 | 28.4 | 28 | −0.4 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 15 | 30.5 | 18.9 | 26.5 | 23 | −3.5 |
| 4 | QPR | 8 | 15 | 24.2 | 16.4 | 25.4 | 24 | −1.4 |
| 5 | Birmingham | 1 | 15 | 26.8 | 20.2 | 24.8 | 29 | +4.2 |
| 6 | Southampton | 4 | 15 | 26.2 | 20.8 | 24.0 | 28 | +4.0 |
| 7 | Millwall | 16 | 15 | 26.7 | 21.4 | 23.6 | 18 | −5.6 |
| 8 | Swansea | 7 | 15 | 24.1 | 20.8 | 22.8 | 26 | +3.2 |
| 9 | Cardiff | 14 | 15 | 29.2 | 25.4 | 22.6 | 18 | −4.6 |
| 10 | West Brom | 6 | 15 | 23.8 | 20.6 | 22.3 | 28 | +5.7 |
| 11 | Norwich | 12 | 15 | 24.8 | 22.5 | 21.9 | 21 | −0.9 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 17 | 15 | 21.8 | 22.5 | 21.0 | 18 | −3.0 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 15 | 15 | 17.6 | 18.4 | 20.5 | 18 | −2.5 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 11 | 15 | 18.2 | 18.6 | 20.5 | 22 | +1.5 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 21 | 15 | 19.7 | 22.1 | 19.9 | 15 | −4.9 |
| 16 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 15 | 18.3 | 20.5 | 19.1 | 22 | +2.9 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 3 | 15 | 15.1 | 21.6 | 17.5 | 29 | +11.5 |
| 18 | Burnley | 22 | 15 | 20.5 | 26.7 | 17.1 | 10 | −7.1 |
| 19 | Preston | 24 | 15 | 18.0 | 24.3 | 16.8 | 8 | −8.8 |
| 20 | Bolton | 18 | 15 | 20.3 | 29.3 | 16.1 | 17 | +0.9 |
| 21 | Charlton | 19 | 15 | 14.6 | 22.8 | 15.6 | 17 | +1.4 |
| 22 | Derby | 23 | 15 | 15.9 | 28.8 | 14.9 | 10 | −4.9 |
| 23 | Blackburn | 13 | 15 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 14.8 | 21 | +6.2 |
| 24 | Watford | 20 | 15 | 14.6 | 26.7 | 13.2 | 15 | +1.8 |
Each match replayed from its full-time xG (Poisson): the points a side would earn on average (xPts). "Real" is the place in the real table.