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12 of 12 matches with xG: 47 goals from 49.5 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–4 Huddersfield | 0.26–2.87 | 2% · 8% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Barnsley 1–3 Stockport County | 1.69–2.51 | 25% · 19% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Bolton 2–3 Luton | 2.79–3.59 | 30% · 15% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Exeter City 1–2 Bradford | 1.04–1.56 | 25% · 25% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Leyton Orient 2–2 Burton Albion | 1.34–2.93 | 15% · 15% · 70% | Draw against the xG: Burton Albion had 70% |
| Northampton 2–3 Plymouth | 0.33–4.85 | 0% · 2% · 98% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Peterborough 1–3 Doncaster | 2.04–4.70 | 11% · 10% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Doncaster |
| Port Vale 0–2 Lincoln | 1.00–2.30 | 15% · 18% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Lincoln |
| Reading 0–1 Blackpool | 1.53–1.00 | 50% · 26% · 25% | Won against the xG: Blackpool |
| Stevenage 1–0 Wigan | 1.64–1.19 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Wycombe 3–2 Rotherham | 2.96–0.71 | 82% · 11% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Mansfield Town 5–4 Cardiff | 1.98–2.65 | 29% · 18% · 53% | Won against the xG: Mansfield Town |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.