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Most points above xPts: Lincoln (+13.6 pts), Cardiff (+8.6 pts), Barnsley (+8.2 pts).
Most points below xPts: Wycombe (−9.7 pts), Doncaster (−8.0 pts), Rotherham (−7.3 pts).
| # | Team | Real | MP | xG | xGA | xPts | Pts | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 3 | 29 | 52.3 | 33.0 | 52.3 | 49 | −3.3 |
| 2 | Bolton | 2 | 29 | 53.1 | 39.4 | 48.2 | 51 | +2.8 |
| 3 | Plymouth | 6 | 27 | 56.6 | 35.4 | 46.2 | 44 | −2.2 |
| 4 | Wycombe | 13 | 27 | 48.7 | 37.9 | 43.7 | 34 | −9.7 |
| 5 | Stevenage | 5 | 30 | 35.7 | 33.7 | 43.3 | 47 | +3.7 |
| 6 | Doncaster | 14 | 25 | 47.2 | 35.0 | 42.0 | 34 | −8.0 |
| 7 | Lincoln | 1 | 25 | 43.4 | 35.1 | 40.4 | 54 | +13.6 |
| 8 | Cardiff | 4 | 24 | 46.5 | 33.7 | 39.4 | 48 | +8.6 |
| 9 | Luton | 7 | 26 | 42.0 | 37.7 | 39.0 | 43 | +4.0 |
| 10 | Bradford | 12 | 26 | 33.8 | 30.0 | 37.6 | 36 | −1.6 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 8 | 27 | 38.1 | 39.7 | 36.0 | 42 | +6.0 |
| 12 | Peterborough | 15 | 27 | 42.2 | 46.6 | 35.3 | 33 | −2.3 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 16 | 29 | 34.7 | 44.9 | 34.2 | 30 | −4.2 |
| 14 | Blackpool | 11 | 27 | 38.9 | 45.4 | 33.9 | 37 | +3.1 |
| 15 | Reading | 10 | 26 | 33.6 | 36.9 | 33.1 | 38 | +4.9 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 19 | 26 | 33.7 | 49.0 | 29.9 | 25 | −4.9 |
| 17 | Barnsley | 9 | 25 | 35.8 | 43.1 | 29.8 | 38 | +8.2 |
| 18 | Mansfield Town | 20 | 22 | 30.2 | 34.3 | 29.3 | 24 | −5.3 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 18 | 22 | 29.9 | 28.8 | 29.2 | 27 | −2.2 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 22 | 23 | 28.5 | 34.0 | 28.3 | 21 | −7.3 |
| 21 | Wigan | 17 | 23 | 27.4 | 35.1 | 27.1 | 29 | +1.9 |
| 22 | AFC Wimbledon | 21 | 24 | 26.5 | 42.0 | 24.6 | 24 | −0.6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 23 | 20 | 24.6 | 31.4 | 24.5 | 19 | −5.5 |
| 24 | Northampton | 24 | 23 | 27.2 | 48.5 | 22.7 | 17 | −5.7 |
Each match replayed from its full-time xG (Poisson): the points a side would earn on average (xPts). "Real" is the place in the real table.