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Most points above xPts: Bromley (+22.8 pts), Milton Keynes Dons (+8.9 pts), Colchester (+7.6 pts).
Most points below xPts: Barrow (−14.4 pts), Crawley Town (−11.5 pts), Tranmere (−10.5 pts).
| # | Team | Real | MP | xG | xGA | xPts | Pts | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grimsby | 9 | 29 | 47.0 | 29.0 | 51.2 | 43 | −8.2 |
| 2 | Notts County | 5 | 29 | 42.4 | 28.0 | 49.5 | 52 | +2.5 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 3 | 28 | 42.4 | 24.7 | 48.3 | 53 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 27 | 42.4 | 26.0 | 47.1 | 56 | +8.9 |
| 5 | Salford City | 4 | 29 | 43.6 | 34.6 | 45.5 | 53 | +7.5 |
| 6 | Bromley | 1 | 29 | 46.2 | 39.5 | 43.2 | 66 | +22.8 |
| 7 | Oldham | 8 | 28 | 43.5 | 35.8 | 43.0 | 44 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Walsall | 13 | 28 | 40.5 | 32.1 | 42.9 | 38 | −4.9 |
| 9 | Chesterfield | 7 | 30 | 43.0 | 42.5 | 42.3 | 49 | +6.7 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 29 | 38.7 | 34.8 | 42.1 | 36 | −6.1 |
| 11 | Barnet | 10 | 26 | 42.3 | 33.8 | 41.6 | 43 | +1.4 |
| 12 | Colchester | 6 | 30 | 38.9 | 41.8 | 41.4 | 49 | +7.6 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 12 | 29 | 41.4 | 43.9 | 39.1 | 43 | +3.9 |
| 14 | Gillingham | 15 | 30 | 39.5 | 45.7 | 38.9 | 34 | −4.9 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 16 | 26 | 35.0 | 32.6 | 37.4 | 33 | −4.4 |
| 16 | Crewe | 11 | 28 | 41.2 | 46.1 | 36.0 | 43 | +7.0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 21 | 27 | 36.8 | 41.8 | 34.5 | 23 | −11.5 |
| 18 | Tranmere | 22 | 28 | 31.5 | 38.9 | 33.5 | 23 | −10.5 |
| 19 | Newport County | 17 | 29 | 34.4 | 50.2 | 31.1 | 30 | −1.1 |
| 20 | Accrington ST | 18 | 28 | 27.1 | 39.1 | 30.6 | 29 | −1.6 |
| 21 | Shrewsbury | 20 | 26 | 23.9 | 33.6 | 28.6 | 24 | −4.6 |
| 22 | Barrow | 24 | 28 | 29.5 | 45.1 | 28.4 | 14 | −14.4 |
| 23 | Cheltenham | 19 | 25 | 26.4 | 36.7 | 27.2 | 26 | −1.2 |
| 24 | Harrogate Town | 23 | 28 | 29.1 | 50.4 | 26.4 | 19 | −7.4 |
Each match replayed from its full-time xG (Poisson): the points a side would earn on average (xPts). "Real" is the place in the real table.