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Most points above xPts: Salford City (+7.7 pts), Crewe (+5.0 pts), Gillingham (+4.8 pts).
Most points below xPts: Bristol Rovers (−6.4 pts), Chesterfield (−5.8 pts), Shrewsbury (−5.7 pts).
| # | Team | Real | MP | xG | xGA | xPts | Pts | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grimsby | 5 | 13 | 28.9 | 18.1 | 24.3 | 20 | −4.3 |
| 2 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 13 | 22.8 | 15.4 | 22.7 | 17 | −5.7 |
| 3 | Barnet | 1 | 13 | 28.9 | 20.6 | 22.1 | 26 | +3.9 |
| 4 | Chesterfield | 15 | 12 | 25.4 | 15.7 | 21.8 | 16 | −5.8 |
| 5 | Accrington ST | 8 | 13 | 23.6 | 16.5 | 21.7 | 18 | −3.7 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | 19 | 13 | 23.8 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 13 | −6.4 |
| 7 | Exeter City | 7 | 13 | 16.9 | 14.9 | 19.2 | 19 | −0.2 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town | 12 | 12 | 21.9 | 18.3 | 19.1 | 17 | −2.1 |
| 9 | York | 13 | 13 | 21.9 | 21.2 | 18.8 | 17 | −1.8 |
| 10 | Oldham | 16 | 13 | 22.5 | 20.7 | 18.4 | 15 | −3.4 |
| 11 | Port Vale | 17 | 12 | 17.4 | 14.0 | 17.9 | 15 | −2.9 |
| 12 | Walsall | 3 | 12 | 25.3 | 23.7 | 17.6 | 21 | +3.4 |
| 13 | Salford City | 2 | 11 | 18.9 | 15.1 | 17.3 | 25 | +7.7 |
| 14 | Rotherham | 22 | 13 | 19.7 | 21.9 | 16.4 | 11 | −5.4 |
| 15 | Northampton | 18 | 13 | 14.0 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 14 | −2.2 |
| 16 | Crewe | 4 | 13 | 18.6 | 22.7 | 16.0 | 21 | +5.0 |
| 17 | Newport County | 20 | 12 | 13.8 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 12 | −3.6 |
| 18 | Gillingham | 6 | 13 | 15.9 | 21.7 | 15.2 | 20 | +4.8 |
| 19 | Colchester | 23 | 12 | 16.1 | 19.9 | 15.0 | 11 | −4.0 |
| 20 | Crawley Town | 24 | 12 | 18.7 | 24.2 | 14.7 | 9 | −5.7 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 9 | 13 | 15.9 | 24.1 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 22 | Cheltenham | 11 | 13 | 15.8 | 24.0 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 23 | Swindon Town | 10 | 13 | 17.3 | 26.1 | 13.4 | 18 | +4.6 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 21 | 12 | 13.3 | 25.5 | 10.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
Each match replayed from its full-time xG (Poisson): the points a side would earn on average (xPts). "Real" is the place in the real table.