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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 29.7 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth 2–0 Leicester | 1.62–0.27 | 72% · 22% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Fulham 0–2 Manchester City | 1.28–2.99 | 13% · 15% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Ipswich 1–3 West Ham | 0.74–1.08 | 25% · 32% · 43% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Liverpool 1–1 Crystal Palace | 2.14–1.77 | 47% · 21% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa | 2.95–0.39 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Newcastle 0–1 Everton | 1.27–1.16 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Close call, Everton won |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Chelsea | 1.20–1.09 | 39% · 28% · 33% | Close call, Chelsea won |
| Southampton 1–2 Arsenal | 0.62–2.39 | 8% · 15% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Tottenham 1–4 Brighton | 2.03–2.24 | 36% · 20% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Wolves 1–1 Brentford | 1.04–1.43 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.