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7 of 10 matches with xG: 18 goals from 18.6 xG (0.97 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Sandhausen 1–2 Arminia Bielefeld | 0.53–3.67 | 2% · 6% · 91% | Win in line with xG for Arminia Bielefeld |
| Erzgebirge Aue 2–1 SpVgg Unterhaching | 0.95–1.66 | 22% · 24% · 54% | Won against the xG: Erzgebirge Aue |
| TSV 1860 München 1–1 FC Saarbrücken | 0.68–1.56 | 16% · 25% · 59% | Draw against the xG: FC Saarbrücken had 59% |
| Dynamo Dresden 0–2 FC Viktoria Köln | 1.25–1.15 | 39% · 28% · 34% | Close call, FC Viktoria Köln won |
| VfB Lübeck 0–5 Borussia Dortmund II | 0.39–2.28 | 5% · 15% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund II |
| Hallescher FC 1–0 Verl | 0.91–1.28 | 26% · 29% · 45% | Won against the xG: Hallescher FC |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 2–0 MSV Duisburg | 1.37–0.96 | 46% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for FC Ingolstadt 04 |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.