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5 of 10 matches with xG: 18 goals from 17.7 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Lübeck 5–3 MSV Duisburg | 3.71–0.91 | 87% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for VfB Lübeck |
| SV Sandhausen 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen | 1.26–1.29 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, SV Sandhausen won |
| Preußen Münster 4–1 FC Saarbrücken | 2.42–2.00 | 48% · 19% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Preußen Münster |
| Hallescher FC 0–1 SpVgg Unterhaching | 2.35–0.91 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Won against the xG: SpVgg Unterhaching |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim | 1.84–0.97 | 58% · 23% · 20% | Draw against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 had 58% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.