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9 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 35.5 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock 0–2 SV Meppen | 1.02–2.26 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Win in line with xG for SV Meppen |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln | 1.94–0.81 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Rot-Weiß Essen |
| FC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg | 1.87–5.03 | 8% · 8% · 85% | Win in line with xG for MSV Duisburg |
| Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II | 0.68–1.93 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Won against the xG: Stuttgart II |
| Havelse 2–2 Würzburger Kickers | 3.18–2.68 | 50% · 17% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 0.13–2.95 | 1% · 7% · 93% | Win in line with xG for FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf | 0.76–1.50 | 19% · 26% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| Verl 2–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg | 1.05–1.66 | 24% · 24% · 52% | Draw against the xG: SSV Jahn Regensburg had 52% |
| FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 2.76–3.31 | 33% · 16% · 51% | Draw against the xG: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach had 51% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.