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5 of 7 matches with xG: 15 goals from 13.4 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larisa 1–4 Panetolikos | 1.24–0.48 | 55% · 30% · 14% | Won against the xG: Panetolikos |
| Panserraikos 0–4 AEK Athens | 0.34–3.67 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for AEK Athens |
| OFI 3–2 Levadiakos | 1.04–1.52 | 26% · 26% · 48% | Won against the xG: OFI |
| Aris Thessaloniki 0–0 PAOK | 0.40–1.32 | 11% · 29% · 60% | Draw against the xG: PAOK had 60% |
| Olympiacos 0–1 Panathinaikos | 1.76–1.68 | 40% · 22% · 37% | Close call, Panathinaikos won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.