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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.0 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari 2–3 Fiorentina | 1.91–1.99 | 38% · 21% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
| Genoa 2–0 Bologna | 1.51–0.89 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Genoa |
| Juventus 2–0 Monza | 0.91–0.62 | 41% · 36% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| AC Milan 3–3 Salernitana | 2.99–1.66 | 65% · 16% · 19% | Draw against the xG: AC Milan had 65% |
| Atalanta 3–0 Torino | 2.62–1.06 | 71% · 16% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Napoli 0–0 Lecce | 1.52–0.50 | 63% · 25% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Napoli had 63% |
| Empoli 2–1 AS Roma | 2.64–1.34 | 65% · 17% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Frosinone 0–1 Udinese | 0.80–0.78 | 33% · 36% · 32% | Close call, Udinese won |
| Hellas Verona 2–2 Inter | 1.75–2.38 | 28% · 20% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 52% |
| Lazio 1–1 Sassuolo | 1.03–1.11 | 33% · 30% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.