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10 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 25.9 xG (0.77 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Kashima | 0.69–2.59 | 8% · 14% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Machida Zelvia 3–1 Nagoya Grampus | 1.72–2.05 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Close call, Machida Zelvia won |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.12–2.69 | 13% · 16% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 3–1 Cerezo Osaka | 2.11–1.81 | 45% · 21% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Yokohama FC 0–1 Kyoto Sanga | 1.30–0.43 | 59% · 29% · 12% | Won against the xG: Kyoto Sanga |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 0.82–0.59 | 38% · 38% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Albirex Niigata 1–3 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.20–2.74 | 2% · 9% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| Vissel Kobe 0–0 FC Tokyo | 1.39–0.39 | 62% · 27% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Vissel Kobe had 62% |
| Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Urawa | 0.75–1.05 | 26% · 32% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Gamba Osaka | 1.09–0.40 | 53% · 33% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.