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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 33.2 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur 2–1 Vitesse | 2.22–0.90 | 67% · 19% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Cambuur |
| Den Bosch 1–3 ADO Den Haag | 1.22–3.79 | 8% · 10% · 83% | Win in line with xG for ADO Den Haag |
| Dordrecht 1–2 Willem II | 1.11–1.78 | 24% · 23% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| FC Eindhoven 1–0 Helmond Sport | 0.52–1.02 | 18% · 34% · 47% | Won against the xG: FC Eindhoven |
| Emmen 1–0 De Graafschap | 2.96–1.13 | 74% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Emmen |
| Jong Ajax 0–2 Jong Utrecht | 0.54–2.97 | 4% · 10% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Jong Utrecht |
| Jong AZ 2–0 Roda | 3.90–1.13 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Jong AZ |
| MVV 0–2 FC OSS | 0.33–1.54 | 8% · 24% · 68% | Win in line with xG for FC OSS |
| VVV Venlo 3–1 Almere City FC | 1.30–1.42 | 34% · 26% · 40% | Close call, VVV Venlo won |
| Waalwijk 4–1 Jong PSV U21 | 2.29–1.18 | 62% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.