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8 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 29.4 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodrum FK 5–0 İstanbulspor | 3.95–0.72 | 91% · 6% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Bodrum FK |
| Bandırmaspor 1–0 Boluspor | 0.48–0.68 | 22% · 42% · 35% | Close call, Bandırmaspor won |
| Sivasspor 3–2 Manisa F.K. | 1.76–1.88 | 37% · 22% · 42% | Close call, Sivasspor won |
| Sakaryaspor 2–3 Serik Spor | 1.81–2.38 | 30% · 20% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Serik Spor |
| Amed 2–1 Hatayspor | 3.02–1.21 | 74% · 14% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Amed |
| Adana Demirspor 2–7 Keçiörengücü | 1.42–4.51 | 6% · 8% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Keçiörengücü |
| Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Esenler Erokspor | 0.69–0.49 | 35% · 42% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Çorum FK 3–1 Iğdır FK | 2.50–1.88 | 52% · 19% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Çorum FK |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.