xG Daily: Monday 9 November 2026

Rubio NU have the better of this fixture: Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Rubio NU

Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 19 · 20:00 UTC · Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU

Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Rubio NU meet in Division Profesional - Clausura at 20:00 UTC.

On the road, in their last six matches, Rubio NU carry 1.22 expected goals for, 1.62 against per game, scoring 0.7 per match, below what the chances are worth. On the scoreboard, those games gave 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses.

These two have met 5 times in our records: 0-0-5 from Club Sp. San Lorenzo's side. The latest of those games: Rubio NU 3-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 1 Sep 2026.

From their last seven games in home games, Club Sp. San Lorenzo created 1.52 xG a game and allowed 1.80, though 1.1 goals per game is less than that xG. That run brought 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have scored in seven in a row.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.57 (Club Sp. San Lorenzo) and 1.51 (Rubio NU). Turned into chances, the hosts win 39% of the time, Rubio NU 37%, with 24% for the draw. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1. As for goals, 59% on three goals or more and a goal at each end at 62%.

Match info: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Rubio NU →The numbers describe recent chances; they are not a tip.

A narrow xG edge towards Sportivo Luqueno over 2 de Mayo

Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 19 · 22:30 UTC · Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo

22:30 UTC: Sportivo Luqueno against 2 de Mayo in Division Profesional - Clausura (Clausura - 19).

In the most recent ten on their travels, 2 de Mayo created 0.84 xG a game and allowed 1.85. That run brought 3 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost. The travelling side last won more than four games ago.

At home, Sportivo Luqueno produce 1.26 xG and give up 1.64 on average across the last ten, though 0.9 goals per game is less than that xG. On the scoreboard, those games gave 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats.

In 6 previous meetings on record, Sportivo Luqueno won 1, 2 de Mayo won 3 and 2 were drawn. When they last met (1 Sep 2026), it ended 2 de Mayo 2-2 Sportivo Luqueno.

The expected goals for this one come out at 1.56 (Sportivo Luqueno) and 1.24 (2 de Mayo). Those numbers give the hosts a 45% chance of winning, 2 de Mayo 30%, and the draw 25%. Goals: 53% on three goals or more; both teams to score at 56%.

Match info: Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo →A reading of the xG, not betting advice.

Puebla try to stop eight matches without a win against Club Queretaro

Liga MX · Apertura - 16 · 00:00 UTC · Club Queretaro vs Puebla

Club Queretaro host Puebla in Liga MX, Apertura - 16; the match gets under way at 00:00 UTC.

In front of their own fans, Club Queretaro produce 1.48 xG and give up 1.62 on average over a 10-game sample. Club Queretaro took 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from them. No win in four for the hosts.

Over a 10-game sample, in away games, Puebla's matches have averaged 0.93 expected goals for, 1.48 against. Results in that spell: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses. Puebla last won more than eight games ago.

Across 3 meetings in our records: Club Queretaro wins 3, Puebla wins 0, draws 0. When they last met (25 Apr 2026), it ended Puebla 1-2 Club Queretaro.

With both sides' numbers combined: 1.48 xG for Club Queretaro, 1.28 for Puebla. In outcomes: home win 42%, draw 25%, away win 33%. Goals: three or more goals at 52%; both teams on the scoresheet at 56%.

Match info: Club Queretaro vs Puebla →This is what the chances say, nothing more.

Guadalajara Chivas take six games without defeat into Leon v Guadalajara Chivas

Liga MX · Apertura - 16 · 02:10 UTC · Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas

02:10 UTC: Leon against Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX).

Guadalajara Chivas sit at an xG split of 1.37 to 1.13 per game in away games in the most recent ten. Results in that spell: 1.5 points a game (3-6-1). The travelling side have gone six without losing. They have scored in each of their last six.

These two have met twice in our records: 1-0-1 from Leon's side. Last time out it was Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon (19 Mar 2026).

The xG record at home reads 1.35 for, 1.42 against per game for Leon across the last ten, and their 2.0 goals a game run ahead of those chances. Leon took W6 D1 L3 from them. A goal in every one of their last ten for the home side.

Setting each attack against the other's defence, our xG preview gives Leon 1.24 expected goals and Guadalajara Chivas 1.40. That points to Leon 33%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas 41%. Both teams to score at 53%, 49% on three goals or more. On these chances 1-1 is the most common score.

Match info: Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas →This is what the chances say, nothing more.

Mushuc Runa SC v Delfin SC: Mushuc Runa SC shade the chances

Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 6 · 18:00 UTC · Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

Mushuc Runa SC welcome Delfin SC (Liga Pro) (Relegation Group - 6); kick-off time 18:00 UTC.

In their last ten matches in away games, Delfin SC created 0.80 xG a game and allowed 1.19, scoring 0.4 per match, below what the chances are worth. Over the same games, Delfin SC recorded 1 win, 1 draw, 8 losses.

From their last ten games, at home, Mushuc Runa SC's matches have averaged 1.25 xG for and 1.15 against; the goals, at 0.8 per game, have not kept pace. Across that stretch, 2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost for the home side. The home side are 8 games without a victory.

In 4 previous meetings on record, Mushuc Runa SC won 1, Delfin SC won 3 and 0 were drawn. Their most recent game, on 9 Oct 2026, finished Delfin SC 3-2 Mushuc Runa SC.

Our xG preview builds this match at 1.22 to 0.97 in expected goals. Those numbers give the home side a 42% chance of winning, Delfin SC 29%, and the draw 29%. The goals picture: both teams on the scoresheet at 44%, three or more goals at 38%.

Match info: Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC →The numbers describe recent chances; they are not a tip.

Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC: Tecnico Universitario nudge ahead on the xG preview

Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 6 · 20:30 UTC · Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC

It is Tecnico Universitario against Manta FC in Liga Pro, from 20:30 UTC.

Manta FC's chances on their travels come to 0.96 xG per match in the most recent ten, with 1.87 conceded. Over the same games, the away side recorded 1 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost.

Across the last ten, in home games, Tecnico Universitario's matches have averaged 1.19 xG created and 1.28 allowed. Across that stretch, 1.3 points a game (4-1-5) for the hosts.

These two have met 7 times in our records: 3-0-4 from Tecnico Universitario's side. Last time out it was Manta FC 1-0 Tecnico Universitario (10 Oct 2026).

Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.53 xG for Tecnico Universitario and 1.12 for Manta FC. In outcomes: home win 47%, draw 25%, away win 28%. Goals: 49% on three goals or more; a goal at each end at 53%. The most likely single score on those numbers is 1-1.

Match info: Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC →The numbers describe recent chances; they are not a tip.

Las Palmas-Eldense: too close to call on xG

Segunda División · Regular Season - 13 · 19:30 UTC · Las Palmas vs Eldense

Kick-off at 19:30 UTC for Las Palmas vs Eldense in Segunda División, Regular Season - 13.

On their own pitch, Las Palmas produce 1.03 xG and give up 1.13 on average across the last nine; their finishing (1.7 goals per match) has outrun their xG. Across that stretch, 1.9 points a game (5-2-2) for Las Palmas.

Eldense's chances overall come to 1.25 xG per match over their last nine, with 1.30 conceded. Over the same games, the away side recorded W3 D1 L5.

Our xG preview builds this match at 1.17 to 1.19 in expected goals. Those numbers give Las Palmas a 35% chance of winning, Eldense 37%, and the draw 28%. For goals, the preview has 42% on three goals or more and 48% for both sides scoring.

Match info: Las Palmas vs Eldense →These figures come from past chances only.

Sabadell a little ahead on xG against Real Sociedad II

Segunda División · Regular Season - 13 · 19:30 UTC · Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

Sabadell and Real Sociedad II meet in Segunda División action at 19:30 UTC.

In their last eight matches across all venues, Sabadell created 1.36 xG a game and allowed 0.84. Across that stretch, W3 D4 L1 for Sabadell.

Real Sociedad II have been running at 1.72 expected goals for, 2.41 against in away games, from their last ten games. Over the same games, Real Sociedad II recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats.

Combining both sides, our xG preview gives Sabadell 1.89 expected goals and Real Sociedad II 1.28. As for goals, over 2.5 on 61% and both teams to score at 61%. In outcomes: home win 52%, draw 22%, away win 26%. Of all scorelines, 1-1 comes up most often.

Match info: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II →It is a reading of recent chances, not a forecast.

Chances expected at both ends: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Eliteserien · Regular Season - 26 · 18:00 UTC · Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Eliteserien: Kristiansund BK play Valerenga at 18:00 UTC.

The xG record in away games reads 1.74 for, 2.01 against per game for Valerenga in their last ten matches, scoring 1.3 per match, below what the chances are worth. Valerenga took 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from them. Valerenga have scored in seven in a row.

The xG record on their own pitch reads 1.18 for, 1.78 against per game for Kristiansund BK in their last ten matches. Results in that spell: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.

Across 2 meetings in our records: Kristiansund BK wins 0, Valerenga wins 2, draws 0. The last meeting, on 29 May 2026, ended Valerenga 3-1 Kristiansund BK.

Taking both records together, our xG preview gives Kristiansund BK 1.59 expected goals and Valerenga 1.76. For goals, the preview has 65% on three goals or more and both teams on the scoresheet at 66%. Win, draw, win: 35%, 23%, 42%. On these chances 1-1 is the most common score.

Match info: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga →The numbers describe recent chances; they are not a tip.

Oţelul seek an end to nine matches without a win against FC Botosani

Liga I · Regular Season - 15 · 18:00 UTC · FC Botosani vs Oţelul

18:00 UTC: FC Botosani against Oţelul in Liga I.

Across 4 meetings in our records: FC Botosani wins 1, Oţelul wins 1, draws 2. The latest of those games: FC Botosani 1-1 Oţelul, 25 Apr 2026.

In front of their own fans, across the last ten, FC Botosani carry 1.98 xG created and 1.06 allowed per game. On the scoreboard, those games gave W5 D2 L3. FC Botosani last won more than four games ago.

The xG record on their travels reads 0.73 for, 1.63 against per game for Oţelul over their last ten. That run brought 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats. Oţelul are 9 games without a victory.

Put together, the preview has FC Botosani on 1.80 xG and Oţelul on 0.90. The split comes out at 59% / 23% / 18% for FC Botosani, the draw and Oţelul. Of all scorelines, 1-0 comes up most often. For goals, the preview has three or more goals at 51% and 49% for both sides scoring.

Match info: FC Botosani vs Oţelul →Recent chances, put into numbers: a guide, not a prediction.

Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros: Alianza Valledupar edge the xG preview

Primera A · Clausura - 18 · 01:15 UTC · Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

Llaneros travel to Alianza Valledupar in Primera A action, Clausura - 18, kick-off time 01:15 UTC.

Llaneros have been running at 0.93 xG for and 1.46 against on the road, in their last ten matches. Across that stretch, a single win (2 drawn, 7 lost) for the travelling side.

Across 3 meetings in our records, the record stands at 2 Alianza Valledupar wins, 0 for Llaneros and 1 draw. Their most recent game, on 26 Apr 2026, finished Llaneros 0-0 Alianza Valledupar.

The xG record on their own pitch reads 1.17 for, 1.33 against per game for Alianza Valledupar over a 10-game sample. Over the same games, the home side recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats.

Taking both records together: 1.31 xG for Alianza Valledupar, 1.13 for Llaneros. The split comes out at 41% / 27% / 32% for Alianza Valledupar, the draw and Llaneros. The goals picture: a goal at each end at 50%, 44% for a three-goal game. The likeliest scoreline: 1-1.

Match info: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros →A reading of the xG, not betting advice.

Universitario are clear on the expected goals against UCV Moquegua

Primera División · Clausura - 16 · 01:30 UTC · Universitario vs UCV Moquegua

Kick-off at 01:30 UTC for Universitario vs UCV Moquegua in the Primera División, Clausura - 16.

Universitario have averaged an xG split of 1.67 to 0.99 on their own pitch over their last ten. Over the same games, Universitario recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses. Universitario arrive on a 5-match unbeaten run. They have scored in each of their last five.

Over their last eight in away games, UCV Moquegua created 0.32 xG a game and allowed 1.82. Across that stretch, 1 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost for UCV Moquegua. The travelling side have not scored in three matches.

One previous meeting on record: drawn. Their most recent game, on 23 May 2026, finished UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario.

Each side's chances for and against combine to 1.75 xG for Universitario and 0.66 for UCV Moquegua. On goals: over 2.5 goals at 43%, 40% for both sides scoring. The split comes out at 64% / 23% / 14% for Universitario, the draw and UCV Moquegua.

Match info: Universitario vs UCV Moquegua →This is what the chances say, nothing more.