Expected points
Replay a match's chances many times, with each shot going in at its own xG. Count the wins, draws and losses: that is how the chances would usually turn into points.
From shots to a result
Take every shot of both teams. Each one scores with a probability equal to its xG. Combine them and you get the chance of every scoreline, and from those the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. Simulation repeats the match thousands of times; with the shot values known, the same answer can be worked out exactly.
Our example: home shots worth 0.45, 0.30, 0.12, 0.08, 0.06, 0.05 (1.06 xG); away shots 0.35, 0.15, 0.07, 0.05 (0.62 xG).
Expected points
xPts = 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
In our example the home side gets 3 × 0.47 + 0.34 = 1.76 xPts, the away side 3 × 0.19 + 0.34 = 0.90 xPts. Over a season, an expected table built from xPts shows which teams' results ran ahead of or behind their chances.
Limits
- Shots in the same attack are treated as independent, which overstates danger a little.
- It ignores game state: a team leading 2-0 may stop attacking, so its chances understate its strength.
- Some sites use team totals with a simpler model (a Poisson count), which gives similar but not identical answers.
Questions
How is xPts calculated?
From the chance of a win and a draw: xPts = 3 × P(win) + P(draw). Those chances come from simulating the match's shots or computing their combinations exactly.
Is an xPts table better than the real table?
It is a different view: the points a team's chances usually bring. It shows where results ran above or below the chances, but the real table decides titles.
Sources
- Tony ElHabr: expected points by simulation
- Soccerment: shots in the same possession
- Opta Analyst: What is expected goals (xG)? · 2023
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.