Typical xG values
What is a penalty worth? A header? A shot from 25 metres? Here are the figures that published sources support, each with how firm it is. Where nobody publishes a reliable average, we say so instead of guessing.
The values at a glance
Every value, its source and how firm it is
| Situation | Typical value | Source | How firm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penalty | 0.79 · 0.78 · 0.76 | Opta 0.79; StatsBomb 0.76 in most models, 0.78 after its 2022 update; Wyscout 0.76 (secondary source) | Firm |
| Average shot | ≈ 0.095 | 45,197 shots and 4,308 goals, Big Five leagues 2015/16 (Bajons & Kook) | Firm |
| Average Premier League chance | 0.11 → 0.12 | Opta, before and after its 2022 model | Firm · Opta only |
| Opta "big chance" | ≈ 0.38 | Fantasy Football Scout, Opta data (2019) | Medium |
| Other shot in the box | ≈ 0.07 | Fantasy Football Scout, Opta data (2019) | Medium |
| Direct free kick | ≈ 0.05–0.06 | Fantasy Football Scout; Soccerment (two sources agree) | Medium |
| Shot from outside the box | ≈ 0.036 | Fantasy Football Scout, Opta data: about one in 29 | Medium |
| Foot shot, six-yard box, central | ≈ 40% | StatsBomb (Trainor), 2012-13 data: a scoring rate, not model xG | Medium · rate |
| Header, six-yard box | under 25% | Same study | Medium · rate |
| Foot shot, central, beyond the six-yard box | ≈ 20% (header ≈ 10%) | Same study | Medium · rate |
| One-on-one with the keeper | "above 0.40" | A betting-site guide; no measured average found | Weak |
| Empty net, rebound, cutback | — | No provider publishes an average | Not published |
Firm: measured or stated by the model's owner. Medium: a secondary source or an older model. Weak: a claim without measured data. A scoring rate is how often such shots were scored, which is close to, but not the same as, a model's xG.
Why the penalty is the only "fixed" value
A penalty is always taken from the same spot with only the keeper to beat, so most models simply give every penalty the historical scoring rate. Even so, the providers' figures differ (0.76 to 0.79), because each measured that rate on its own archive of penalties. Everything else depends on the exact situation, so it has no fixed value.
Does a shot on target have a set value?
No. Pre-shot xG is decided before the strike, so a shot that hits the top corner and one that clears the bar from the same spot have the same xG. Only post-shot models (Opta's xGOT, StatsBomb's post-shot xG, FBref's PSxG) look at where the ball went, and they value only shots on target; off-target shots are worth zero there.
Questions
What is the xG of a penalty?
About 0.76 to 0.79, depending on the provider: Opta uses 0.79, StatsBomb 0.76 (0.78 in its 2022 update), Wyscout 0.76.
What is the xG of a free kick?
Direct free kicks average around 0.05 to 0.06 xG in published Opta-based figures, roughly one goal in 17 to 20 attempts.
What is a big chance in xG?
A big chance is an analyst's tag for a situation where a player should reasonably score. In older Opta data big chances averaged about 0.38 xG; Opta dropped the tag from its model in 2022.
Sources
- Opta Analyst: What is expected goals (xG)? · 2023
- Opta Analyst: Evolving expected goals (the 2022 model) · April 2022
- Hudl StatsBomb: Expected goals (xG) explained
- Hudl StatsBomb: Upgrading expected goals · May 2022
- Wyscout data glossary: xG
- Bajons & Kook: expected goals models (arXiv) · 2025
- Fantasy Football Scout: What is xG and how is it measured (Opta data) · June 2019
- StatsBomb (Trainor): How do headers compare to shots? · 2013
- FBref: Expected goals model explained
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.