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4 of 8 matches with xG: 10 goals from 11.8 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo 4–0 Capivariano | 2.13–1.36 | 55% · 21% · 24% | Win in line with xG for São Bernardo |
| Santos 2–1 Novorizontino | 1.70–0.80 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Guarani Campinas 1–1 Primavera SP | 1.95–1.51 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portuguesa 0–1 Palmeiras | 1.07–1.24 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.