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5 of 8 matches with xG: 9 goals from 11.8 xG (0.76 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino 2–0 Guarani Campinas | 1.98–0.30 | 78% · 17% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Capivariano 1–0 Portuguesa | 1.02–2.16 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Won against the xG: Capivariano |
| Ponte Preta 0–1 Velo Clube | 0.32–0.66 | 16% · 46% · 38% | Close call, Velo Clube won |
| Botafogo SP 1–1 Noroeste | 0.86–1.68 | 19% · 24% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Noroeste had 57% |
| RB Bragantino 3–0 Corinthians | 1.57–1.23 | 45% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.