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4 of 5 matches with xG: 10 goals from 9.3 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife 1–1 Decisão | 1.23–0.88 | 44% · 29% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nautico Recife 3–2 Jaguaré | 2.05–1.28 | 55% · 21% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Nautico Recife |
| Maguary PE 1–0 Central SC | 1.18–0.73 | 47% · 31% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Maguary PE |
| Santa Cruz 2–0 Petrolina | 1.35–0.59 | 55% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Santa Cruz |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.