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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 23.7 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias 1–0 America Mineiro | 0.88–0.86 | 34% · 34% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Goias |
| Fluminense 2–3 Gremio | 2.39–2.39 | 41% · 19% · 41% | Close call, Gremio won |
| Vasco da Gama 2–1 RB Bragantino | 1.74–0.84 | 59% · 23% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Sao Paulo 1–0 Flamengo | 0.55–0.46 | 30% · 46% · 24% | Close call, Sao Paulo won |
| Santos 1–2 Fortaleza EC | 1.13–1.08 | 37% · 29% · 34% | Close call, Fortaleza EC won |
| Cruzeiro 1–1 Palmeiras | 1.41–1.30 | 40% · 26% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Internacional 3–1 Botafogo | 1.29–0.39 | 60% · 29% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Internacional |
| Coritiba 0–2 Corinthians | 0.49–0.54 | 25% · 46% · 29% | Close call, Corinthians won |
| Bahia 4–1 Atlético Mineiro | 1.50–0.97 | 50% · 26% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Cuiaba 3–0 Athletico Paranaense | 2.51–0.99 | 70% · 17% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.