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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 22.6 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians 1–2 Internacional | 1.76–1.08 | 53% · 23% · 23% | Won against the xG: Internacional |
| Atlético Mineiro 2–1 Sao Paulo | 0.92–1.29 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Won against the xG: Atlético Mineiro |
| Flamengo 2–1 Cuiaba | 1.52–0.85 | 53% · 26% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Palmeiras 1–0 Fluminense | 1.85–0.21 | 78% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Botafogo 0–0 Cruzeiro | 0.69–0.85 | 27% · 36% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| RB Bragantino 1–0 Coritiba | 2.11–0.27 | 81% · 15% · 4% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Gremio 1–0 Vasco da Gama | 0.79–0.83 | 31% · 35% · 34% | Close call, Gremio won |
| Athletico Paranaense 3–0 Santos | 0.96–0.64 | 42% · 35% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Athletico Paranaense |
| Fortaleza EC 1–0 Goias | 1.19–0.39 | 57% · 31% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| America Mineiro 3–2 Bahia | 1.14–3.31 | 9% · 12% · 79% | Won against the xG: America Mineiro |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.