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4 of 10 matches with xG: 9 goals from 10.3 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova 2–0 Mirassol | 0.73–0.30 | 42% · 44% · 14% | Close call, Vila Nova won |
| Vitoria 2–0 Botafogo SP | 1.93–0.54 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
| Novorizontino 1–2 Chapecoense | 2.78–1.76 | 59% · 17% · 23% | Won against the xG: Chapecoense |
| Ceara 1–1 Ponte Preta | 1.01–1.25 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.