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5 of 10 matches with xG: 13 goals from 11.5 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paysandu 0–1 Amazonas | 1.24–0.99 | 42% · 29% · 29% | Close call, Amazonas won |
| Ceara 2–1 Operario-PR | 1.17–0.82 | 44% · 30% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Ceara |
| America Mineiro 3–0 Guarani Campinas | 1.23–0.20 | 64% · 30% · 6% | Win in line with xG for America Mineiro |
| Coritiba 2–2 Novorizontino | 1.93–0.73 | 66% · 21% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Coritiba had 66% |
| Ponte Preta 0–2 Chapecoense | 1.35–1.81 | 29% · 23% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Chapecoense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.