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6 of 10 matches with xG: 7 goals from 10.4 xG (0.67 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai 0–0 Brusque | 0.98–0.18 | 56% · 37% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Avai had 56% |
| Amazonas 1–0 Novorizontino | 0.99–0.72 | 41% · 33% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Amazonas |
| Ponte Preta 1–0 Botafogo SP | 1.06–0.71 | 43% · 32% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Ponte Preta |
| Ituano 1–0 Guarani Campinas | 1.30–0.63 | 53% · 29% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Ituano |
| Mirassol 1–0 Vila Nova | 1.27–0.06 | 70% · 29% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Mirassol |
| Sport Recife 2–1 Ceara | 1.12–1.36 | 31% · 27% · 42% | Close call, Sport Recife won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.