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8 of 10 matches with xG: 16 goals from 22.1 xG (0.72 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB 1–0 Vila Nova | 2.12–0.63 | 72% · 18% · 10% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
| Novorizontino 0–0 Coritiba | 1.15–2.06 | 21% · 21% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Coritiba had 58% |
| Amazonas 1–1 Paysandu | 0.81–1.45 | 21% · 27% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Paysandu had 52% |
| Goias 4–0 Botafogo SP | 3.47–0.46 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Goias |
| Sport Recife 1–2 Avai | 0.44–1.53 | 10% · 25% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Avai |
| Santos 4–0 Brusque | 1.57–0.10 | 76% · 22% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Mirassol 2–0 Ituano | 2.48–0.25 | 86% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Mirassol |
| Operario-PR 0–0 Ceara | 1.40–2.23 | 24% · 20% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Ceara had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.