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8 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 18.2 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR 1–0 Criciuma | 0.81–0.46 | 41% · 40% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Botafogo SP 2–1 America Mineiro | 1.25–1.18 | 38% · 27% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
| Amazonas 2–2 Goias | 1.04–1.40 | 28% · 27% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chapecoense 3–2 CRB | 1.06–1.07 | 35% · 30% · 35% | Close call, Chapecoense won |
| Novorizontino 1–1 Avai | 2.65–0.95 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Novorizontino had 74% |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–1 Paysandu | 1.16–0.70 | 47% · 31% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Athletic Club 1–1 Atletico Goianiense | 1.70–0.71 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Athletic Club had 61% |
| Cuiaba 2–0 Volta Redonda | 1.84–0.19 | 79% · 18% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.