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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 19.6 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova 2–2 CRB | 0.00–0.02 | 0% · 98% · 2% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ceara 1–1 São Bernardo | 1.83–0.24 | 77% · 19% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Ceara had 77% |
| Operario-PR 1–0 Atletico Goianiense | 2.41–0.57 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Botafogo SP 4–0 Fortaleza EC | 2.52–0.24 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
| Cuiaba 0–0 Sport Recife | 1.27–0.75 | 49% · 29% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avai 2–0 Juventude | 1.04–0.47 | 49% · 34% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Avai |
| Nautico Recife 0–1 Criciuma | 0.03–0.43 | 2% · 64% · 34% | Close call, Criciuma won |
| Athletic Club 2–1 Ponte Preta | 0.79–0.52 | 39% · 39% · 22% | Close call, Athletic Club won |
| Goias 3–1 America Mineiro | 1.97–1.53 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Goias |
| Novorizontino 1–3 Londrina | 1.94–1.03 | 59% · 22% · 20% | Won against the xG: Londrina |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.