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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 24.0 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR 2–6 Nautico Recife | 2.50–2.30 | 44% · 19% · 37% | Close call, Nautico Recife won |
| São Bernardo 1–1 America Mineiro | 1.27–0.49 | 56% · 30% · 14% | Draw against the xG: São Bernardo had 56% |
| Goias 1–0 Botafogo SP | 0.71–0.21 | 44% · 46% · 10% | Close call, Goias won |
| Cuiaba 0–0 Novorizontino | 1.56–0.83 | 55% · 25% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Cuiaba had 55% |
| Athletic Club 1–1 Juventude | 1.20–0.80 | 45% · 30% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vila Nova 2–0 Avai | 1.30–0.65 | 52% · 29% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Vila Nova |
| Ceara 2–1 Fortaleza EC | 0.79–1.63 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Won against the xG: Ceara |
| Criciuma 1–1 Atletico Goianiense | 0.99–1.43 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sport Recife 1–2 CRB | 0.80–1.35 | 22% · 28% · 50% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
| Ponte Preta 1–4 Londrina | 1.22–1.94 | 24% · 22% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Londrina |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.