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5 of 5 matches with xG: 10 goals from 12.4 xG (0.80 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.22–1.06 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sibenik 0–1 HNK Rijeka | 1.48–1.29 | 42% · 25% · 33% | Close call, HNK Rijeka won |
| Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 NK Slaven Belupo | 1.94–1.24 | 54% · 22% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Dinamo Zagreb |
| HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split | 0.87–1.02 | 30% · 32% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Istra 1961 0–0 NK Varazdin | 0.94–1.39 | 25% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.