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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 30.2 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–0 Norwich | 1.24–0.11 | 67% · 30% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Coventry 1–2 QPR | 1.85–0.50 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Ipswich 2–0 Huddersfield | 1.65–0.09 | 78% · 20% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Leeds 1–2 Southampton | 0.92–1.16 | 29% · 30% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Leicester 0–2 Blackburn | 1.29–1.70 | 29% · 24% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford | 2.20–1.05 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Plymouth 1–0 Hull City | 0.43–0.50 | 23% · 48% · 28% | Close call, Plymouth won |
| Rotherham 5–2 Cardiff | 3.30–1.34 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Stoke City 4–0 Bristol City | 1.85–1.05 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Sunderland 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.49–1.14 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Swansea 0–1 Millwall | 1.45–0.80 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| West Brom 3–0 Preston | 2.95–0.16 | 92% · 7% · 1% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.