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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 36.2 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR 4–0 Leeds | 0.72–1.01 | 25% · 33% · 41% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Blackburn 0–0 Coventry | 2.69–0.34 | 87% · 10% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 87% |
| Bristol City 2–0 Rotherham | 2.06–0.40 | 77% · 17% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Cardiff 1–4 Middlesbrough | 1.63–1.66 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Birmingham | 1.09–1.11 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 1–0 Plymouth | 1.05–0.34 | 53% · 35% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 West Brom | 2.10–1.29 | 56% · 21% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Southampton 0–1 Stoke City | 1.69–1.99 | 33% · 21% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Watford 1–0 Sunderland | 0.54–1.27 | 16% · 30% · 55% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Norwich 2–2 Swansea | 3.09–1.40 | 71% · 15% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 71% |
| Hull City 3–3 Ipswich | 2.69–2.15 | 50% · 18% · 31% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 50% |
| Preston 0–3 Leicester | 0.36–3.49 | 2% · 6% · 93% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.