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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 34.9 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 4–2 Derby | 2.05–1.08 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Preston 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.64–1.02 | 23% · 34% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Cardiff 0–2 Sunderland | 1.02–1.80 | 21% · 23% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Hull City 1–1 Bristol City | 1.67–1.25 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 3–3 Portsmouth | 3.39–0.94 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 83% |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea | 2.86–0.47 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Millwall 2–3 Watford | 2.00–1.12 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Oxford United 2–0 Norwich | 0.91–0.83 | 35% · 34% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| QPR 1–3 West Brom | 0.85–1.49 | 21% · 26% · 52% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Stoke City 1–0 Coventry | 0.95–0.74 | 39% · 34% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 Plymouth | 4.68–0.23 | 98% · 2% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Luton 1–4 Burnley | 1.43–1.46 | 37% · 25% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.