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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 31.4 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry 3–2 Oxford United | 2.95–0.96 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough | 1.05–1.55 | 26% · 25% · 49% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Portsmouth 0–0 Luton | 0.93–0.95 | 33% · 32% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 0–0 Leeds | 0.70–0.70 | 31% · 38% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 4–3 Millwall | 2.74–2.22 | 50% · 18% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Burnley 5–0 Cardiff | 0.81–0.62 | 37% · 38% · 26% | Close call, Burnley won |
| Norwich 2–2 Blackburn | 2.06–0.89 | 64% · 20% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 64% |
| Plymouth 1–1 Hull City | 0.69–0.80 | 28% · 37% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Utd 2–2 QPR | 1.71–0.69 | 62% · 23% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 62% |
| Swansea 3–0 Preston | 2.42–0.76 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 3–0 Stoke City | 2.27–0.85 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Sunderland 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.67–0.38 | 70% · 22% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.