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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 24.3 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds | 0.39–1.21 | 12% · 31% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Bristol City 1–1 Coventry | 0.66–0.64 | 31% · 40% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 0–0 Millwall | 0.82–0.80 | 33% · 35% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–1 Plymouth | 2.17–0.14 | 85% · 13% · 2% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 85% |
| Blackburn 2–1 Oxford United | 0.82–0.89 | 31% · 34% · 35% | Close call, Blackburn won |
| Middlesbrough 2–2 Portsmouth | 2.90–1.05 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 75% |
| Norwich 1–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.95–0.80 | 37% · 33% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Preston 1–0 Luton | 0.26–1.64 | 5% · 22% · 73% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Stoke City 1–2 West Brom | 1.79–1.53 | 44% · 23% · 33% | Close call, West Brom won |
| Sunderland 1–0 Burnley | 0.73–0.13 | 47% · 46% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Watford 2–1 Derby | 1.13–0.74 | 45% · 31% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Swansea 1–1 Cardiff | 1.40–0.68 | 54% · 28% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 54% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.