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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 24.1 xG (1.00 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff 2–0 Portsmouth | 2.31–0.68 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Leeds 2–1 Watford | 1.36–0.69 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Oxford United 1–1 Derby | 0.46–1.15 | 15% · 32% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Derby had 53% |
| Preston 2–2 Norwich | 1.62–0.59 | 63% · 24% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 63% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Swansea | 0.58–0.83 | 24% · 38% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 2–2 Bristol City | 0.77–2.51 | 9% · 15% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 75% |
| QPR 1–1 Coventry | 0.72–0.76 | 30% · 37% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 1–1 Burnley | 0.89–0.65 | 39% · 36% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 0–0 West Brom | 0.89–0.44 | 45% · 38% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Luton 1–2 Sunderland | 1.80–0.70 | 64% · 22% · 14% | Won against the xG: Sunderland |
| Millwall 1–0 Plymouth | 1.19–0.63 | 50% · 31% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 1.42–0.41 | 63% · 27% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.