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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.5 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.72–0.86 | 28% · 35% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Bristol City 0–0 Leeds | 0.16–1.38 | 4% · 26% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 69% |
| Coventry 3–2 Luton | 3.34–1.71 | 69% · 14% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Watford 1–0 Blackburn | 2.03–1.44 | 51% · 21% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Burnley 0–0 QPR | 1.20–0.08 | 67% · 31% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 67% |
| Derby 1–1 Hull City | 0.63–1.08 | 21% · 33% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 3–3 Preston | 1.17–2.08 | 21% · 21% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 58% |
| Sheffield Utd 2–0 Stoke City | 1.36–0.42 | 61% · 28% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Sunderland 2–0 Oxford United | 1.22–0.15 | 65% · 30% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Swansea 0–1 Millwall | 1.93–0.37 | 75% · 19% · 6% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| West Brom 0–0 Cardiff | 1.66–0.57 | 64% · 24% · 12% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 64% |
| Norwich 3–3 Middlesbrough | 1.10–3.86 | 6% · 9% · 85% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 85% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.