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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 32.0 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 1–1 West Brom | 0.95–0.72 | 39% · 34% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.61–2.19 | 9% · 17% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Oxford United 1–2 Swansea | 1.41–2.57 | 20% · 18% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Stoke City 2–1 Derby | 2.25–0.64 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Cardiff 2–1 Norwich | 0.64–1.73 | 13% · 23% · 64% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| Hull City 1–1 Portsmouth | 1.40–1.01 | 46% · 27% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 3–0 Plymouth | 1.86–0.00 | 84% · 16% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Middlesbrough 0–3 Coventry | 0.92–2.46 | 12% · 17% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Preston 1–3 Bristol City | 0.60–1.02 | 21% · 34% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| QPR 0–0 Sunderland | 1.40–0.83 | 50% · 27% · 22% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 50% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–6 Watford | 1.51–4.10 | 9% · 10% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Millwall 1–0 Burnley | 0.99–0.20 | 56% · 37% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.