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12 of 12 matches with xG: 20 goals from 25.2 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.52–0.96 | 50% · 26% · 24% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Oxford United 1–0 Hull City | 0.80–1.02 | 28% · 32% · 40% | Close call, Oxford United won |
| QPR 1–4 Middlesbrough | 0.45–1.93 | 8% · 19% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Norwich | 1.83–0.31 | 75% · 19% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Plymouth 1–0 Portsmouth | 0.79–0.80 | 32% · 35% · 33% | Close call, Plymouth won |
| Swansea 1–0 Watford | 2.00–0.35 | 77% · 17% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Millwall 1–0 Leeds | 0.36–0.87 | 15% · 39% · 46% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Blackburn 0–2 Stoke City | 2.56–2.04 | 50% · 19% · 31% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Coventry 1–2 Derby | 0.87–0.40 | 45% · 39% · 16% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Luton 1–0 Cardiff | 0.99–0.59 | 44% · 35% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Preston 0–0 Sunderland | 1.50–0.72 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 56% |
| West Brom 0–0 Burnley | 0.72–0.86 | 28% · 35% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.