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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 25.8 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford 1–0 Oxford United | 1.51–1.46 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Cardiff 1–3 Blackburn | 1.60–2.27 | 27% · 20% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Middlesbrough 5–1 Luton | 1.32–0.32 | 63% · 28% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Stoke City 1–1 Millwall | 0.74–1.93 | 14% · 21% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 66% |
| Derby 1–1 Plymouth | 1.09–0.14 | 61% · 34% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Derby had 61% |
| Leeds 2–0 QPR | 2.16–0.34 | 80% · 15% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Norwich 0–2 Bristol City | 0.28–0.88 | 11% · 40% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Portsmouth 3–1 Preston | 2.21–0.51 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sunderland 2–2 Coventry | 0.66–0.66 | 30% · 40% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.50–0.39 | 29% · 49% · 21% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Hull City 1–2 West Brom | 1.16–1.17 | 36% · 28% · 36% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Burnley 1–0 Swansea | 1.85–0.64 | 66% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.