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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 35.5 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth 2–2 Watford | 0.42–2.25 | 5% · 15% · 79% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 79% |
| Bristol City 0–1 Burnley | 0.73–1.47 | 19% · 27% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Coventry 2–2 Sheffield Utd | 2.32–1.32 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 60% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Cardiff | 2.77–1.25 | 69% · 16% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 69% |
| Luton 1–0 Hull City | 0.83–1.55 | 20% · 26% · 54% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Millwall 1–1 Sunderland | 1.43–0.97 | 48% · 27% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 2–6 Middlesbrough | 0.58–2.89 | 5% · 11% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Preston 1–1 Derby | 0.35–0.56 | 18% · 49% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–1 Stoke City | 2.27–1.19 | 62% · 19% · 19% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 62% |
| West Brom 2–2 Norwich | 1.78–1.86 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 3–4 Leeds | 1.57–2.63 | 22% · 18% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Blackburn 3–0 Portsmouth | 1.45–1.10 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.