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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 29.3 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 2–0 Coventry | 0.97–0.11 | 58% · 38% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Hull City 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.00–2.16 | 16% · 20% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Norwich 6–1 Plymouth | 3.15–0.62 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Sheffield Utd 3–0 Oxford United | 3.56–0.26 | 94% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Stoke City 0–0 Preston | 0.71–0.69 | 31% · 38% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 1–0 Bristol City | 0.30–0.52 | 17% · 51% · 32% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Sunderland 0–0 West Brom | 0.91–0.46 | 45% · 37% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 3–0 Luton | 2.50–0.80 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Cardiff 0–2 QPR | 1.11–0.91 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Close call, QPR won |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Blackburn | 0.73–1.43 | 19% · 27% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Derby 1–2 Swansea | 3.58–0.24 | 95% · 5% · 1% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall | 1.18–1.40 | 32% · 26% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.