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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 34.4 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Sunderland | 0.84–1.69 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Middlesbrough 3–1 Hull City | 1.84–1.21 | 52% · 23% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Oxford United 1–1 Millwall | 0.90–0.88 | 34% · 33% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 0–0 QPR | 0.79–1.25 | 23% · 29% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 1–0 Leeds | 2.17–1.28 | 58% · 20% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Bristol City 4–0 Plymouth | 3.20–0.14 | 94% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Coventry 2–2 Cardiff | 2.56–0.69 | 78% · 14% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 78% |
| Norwich 4–2 Luton | 1.85–1.51 | 46% · 22% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 1–1 West Brom | 0.93–0.51 | 44% · 36% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 0–2 Burnley | 0.82–2.95 | 7% · 12% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Swansea 2–2 Portsmouth | 2.69–0.92 | 75% · 15% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 75% |
| Derby 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.83–0.94 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.