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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 26.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough | 0.67–0.88 | 26% · 36% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 2–0 Derby | 1.24–0.08 | 68% · 29% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Preston | 1.46–3.34 | 13% · 13% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 74% |
| Sunderland 2–1 Stoke City | 2.47–0.79 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Hull City 0–1 Blackburn | 0.96–0.30 | 52% · 37% · 11% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Luton 1–1 Swansea | 0.87–2.16 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 67% |
| Millwall 0–1 Coventry | 0.48–1.77 | 9% · 22% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Portsmouth 3–0 Bristol City | 2.44–1.22 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| QPR 3–0 Norwich | 0.84–0.36 | 45% · 40% · 15% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| West Brom 2–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.77–1.09 | 26% · 32% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 1–1 Watford | 0.79–0.80 | 32% · 35% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 1–1 Oxford United | 0.52–0.42 | 29% · 48% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.